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Tropical Depression NINE-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2013-08-22 22:34:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU AUG 22 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 222034 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 200 PM PDT THU AUG 22 2013 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE HELD STEADY AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT. THERE IS A RELATIVELY SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN...SINCE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY IN 48 HOURS OR LESS. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS...AND JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...330/5...CONTINUES. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYLONE...AND TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST AND THE ECMWF IS FARTHER WEST...AND SLOWER. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION COULD BEGIN SURGING NORTHWARD TOWARD NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS...INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 17.7N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 18.5N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 19.7N 113.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 21.1N 113.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 22.7N 114.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 25.5N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1800Z 27.5N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1800Z 27.5N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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