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Tropical Depression NINE-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2013-08-23 10:39:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 23 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 230838 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 23 2013 THERE CONTINUES TO BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION...ONE OF WHICH IS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OTHER CONVECTIVE AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 100 N MI TO THE EAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION. THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 30 KT. ONLY A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO... DESPITE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS...DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM AND AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD PATTERN. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 36 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER COLDER WATER AND INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND STABLE AIR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO BE OVER SSTS OF AROUND 23C. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND BECOME REINFORCED BY A TROUGH MOVING TOWARD CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE STEADILY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE COULD SURGE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 18.7N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 19.7N 113.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 21.2N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 22.8N 114.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 24.5N 115.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0600Z 27.0N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0600Z 28.0N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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