je.st
news
Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 6
2015-10-16 10:36:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 160835 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 200 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015 The cloud pattern remains poorly organized and consists of a small area of deep convection with little or no banding features. Microwave data suggest that the low-level center is still on the eastern edge of the convective region. Given that the Dvorak CI-numbers have not changed significantly, the initial intensity is kept at 25 kt. It is surprising that the depression has not responded to the quite favorable environment of low shear and warm waters yet. In fact, most the guidance indicated that the depression should have been already a strong tropical storm or even a hurricane. Since the opportunity for strengthening is still there, the NHC forecast insists on intensification and calls for the depression to become a hurricane in about 3 days. The depression is trapped south of strong subtropical ridge moving toward the west at 12 kt. Global models indicate that the ridge will gradually move eastward. This steering pattern should allow the cyclone to turn more to the west-northwest in about 3 days, and eventually to move northward by the end of the forecast period. The NHC forecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus and the GFS/ECMWF solutions. The spread in the guidance has decreased a little bit, and in general, most of the models now turn the cyclone northward around 140 W. This increases slightly the confidence in the long range track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 10.1N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 10.0N 125.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 10.0N 127.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 10.0N 129.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 10.3N 130.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 11.5N 133.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 13.0N 136.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 15.0N 139.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Category:Transportation and Logistics