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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-08-09 04:33:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 090233 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2020 Deep convection associated with the area of disturbed weather that we have been monitoring to the south of Mexico has persisted for more than 12 hours. Directional ambiguities from an earlier ASCAT-B scatterometer overpass suggest that the system has a closed circulation, and recent satellite imagery shows that convection is increasing near the estimated center while banding features are becoming better defined. The system has sufficient convective organization and circulation to be designated as a tropical depression, and advisories are being initiated. Based on a ship report and the scatterometer data, the current intensity is estimated to be near 30 kt. Upper-level outflow from the tropical cyclone is becoming better defined, and the system will be moving over warm waters and in a low-shear environment through early next week. With these conducive factors for strengthening, the cyclone is likely to become a tropical storm rather soon and a hurricane within a couple of days. The official forecast is similar to the model consensus but given the anticipated environment, this may be conservative. By days 3-5, cooler waters will likely lead to weakening. Although the center is not yet very well defined, my best estimate of initial motion is a fairly climatological 295/12 kt. The steering pattern looks quite straightforward for the next several days. A pronounced 500 mb ridge extending westward from the southwest United States over the Pacific should maintain a generally west-northwestward track for much of the forecast period. Late in the period, as the cyclone weakens, the shallower circulation should turn westward with the lower-level flow. The official track forecast is mainly a combination of the simple and corrected multi-model consensus solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 14.7N 102.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 15.6N 104.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 16.7N 107.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 17.8N 109.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 18.8N 112.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 19.7N 114.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 20.5N 117.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 21.4N 122.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 14/0000Z 21.0N 127.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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