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Tropical Depression Nine-E Public Advisory Number 1
2024-09-12 16:58:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 121458 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 800 AM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 107.6W ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the southern portion of Baja California Sur from Santa Fe southward on the west coast and La Paz southward on the east coast. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch along the east coast of Baja California Sur north of La Paz to San Evaristo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from La Paz southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico north of La Paz to San Evaristo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Tropical Depression Nine-E. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 107.6 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through early Friday, followed by a turn toward the north and a slight decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone should pass near or over Baja California Sur Friday or Friday night before emerging over the southern Gulf of California late Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours, and the depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm later today, with some slight additional strengthening possible before the system reaches the southern Baja California peninsula. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine-E is expected to produce 4-6 inches of rain with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches across the coastal areas of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through early Friday. From Friday through Sunday, the system is forecast to produce 4-6 inches of rain, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, the system may produce between 6-8 inches of rain with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the warning area by early Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Friday night or early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Depression Nine-E will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico during the next day or so, and will spread northward along the coasts of the southern Baja California Peninsula and mainland Mexico beginning tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM MST. Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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