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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-10-20 10:45:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 200845 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192019 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Microwave, geostationary satellite, and scatterometer data indicate that the small area of low pressure located near the southwestern coast of Mexico quickly became better defined during the evening hours, and deep convection has persisted and become better organized overnight. Multiple ASCAT passes revealed winds of at least 25-30 kt over the southern portion of the circulation, and based on these data, the system is being classified as a 30-kt tropical depression. The depression is moving northward or 355/6 kt. The global models indicate that the depression will move generally northward around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge that extends over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and eastern Mexico. This motion should bring the center of the cyclone inland over southwestern Mexico later today or early tonight. The NHC track forecast follows a blend of the GFS and ECMWF model fields. The depression is currently located over warm waters and within an area of moderate easterly shear. In fact, the center of the depression is currently located near the eastern edge of the convective mass. Due to the shear and the very short time the system is expected to remain over water, only slight strengthening is predicted. The depression, however, could become a short-lived tropical storm later today. Once inland, the cyclone should rapidly weaken and dissipate over the high terrain of southwestern Mexico. The primary threat with the cyclone will be heavy rainfall and the potential for flash flooding and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 17.5N 104.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 18.3N 104.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 19.6N 104.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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