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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-10-06 04:51:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 060251 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E is beginning to show better signs of organization tonight. Recent satellite imagery depicts a burst of deep convection near the estimated center of the depression with cloud top temperatures colder than -70 degrees Celsius. This trend, along with recent UW-CIMSS ADT estimates, suggests the system may be nearing tropical storm strength. The initial intensity is perhaps conservatively held at 30 kt for this advisory based on earlier T2.0 classifications from TAFB and SAB. The estimated initial motion of the depression remains 340/6 kt. This general motion should continue through the overnight hours as the system is steered by a mid-level ridge over southern Mexico. As the ridge weakens through the middle of the week, the steering currents will break down and the system will likely meander well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico for several days. By days 4-5, global models indicate the ridge should rebuild over southern Mexico, which would eventually support a northwestward motion late in the forecast period. The NHC forecast track shows little change with this advisory, and remains close to the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA. The intensity forecast remains challenging with above average spread in the guidance. The environmental conditions generally appear favorable, with low to moderate deep-layer wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. The statistical-dynamical SHIPS guidance indicates gradual strengthening will occur over the next several days. However, global models including the GFS and ECMWF, along with the HWRF and HMON, forecast little intensity change or even weakening as the system meanders well offshore. This could be a product of the system struggling to separate from the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), or possible upwelling as it drifts over the same general area for several days. Given these mixed signals in the guidance, the NHC intensity forecast remains close to the previous advisory and only shows modest strengthening during the forecast period. This forecast still lies slightly above the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 13.3N 105.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 13.8N 106.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 14.0N 106.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 13.8N 106.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 13.7N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 08/1200Z 13.9N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 14.1N 106.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 14.5N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 15.0N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky
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