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Tropical Depression Nineteen Forecast Discussion Number 4
2024-11-14 15:50:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 141450 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 1000 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 Latest satellite imagery depicts that the system continues to become better organized this morning, with improved curved banding features, and deep convection consolidating near the low-level center. The latest subjective intensity estimates were T/2.5 from both TAFB and SAB. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt, and an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is about to enter the system which will provide more information on current intensity and structure. The cyclone is moving westward with an estimated motion of 265/12 kt. A strong mid-level ridge located to the north of the system will continue steer the system westward towards Central America. The ridge is expected to break down, and the cyclone will meander in weak steering currents, Friday through the weekend. This expected slow motion will cause the system to produce heavy rains over the same region, likely causing life-threatening flooding over portions of Central America. By early next week, the mid-level ridge should slide eastward over Florida, which should cause the system to move northwestward across Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. The NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the various consensus models, and is nudged slightly left towards the latest model trends. Environmental and oceanic conditions are conducive for some strengthening during the next day or so while the cyclone remains over water. There remains uncertainty in how much land interaction there will be with Honduras during the next several days, but the model trends have been southward showing more interaction. If the system remains along the coast or just offshore, it will likely maintain intensity or slightly strengthen. However, if the depression moves a little south of the forecast track, the system could be weaker than shown below. Given the slight leftward track adjustment with potentially more land interaction, the latest NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous and is near the middle of the guidance envelope. However, it must be stressed that there is still a lot of uncertainty in the intensity forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, and the adjacent Bay Islands where tropical storm warnings are in effect. 3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico by early next week where there is a risk of strong winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates. 4. It is too soon to determine what impacts, if any, the system could bring to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, during the middle portion of next week. Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 15.7N 82.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 15.7N 83.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 15.9N 84.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 36H 16/0000Z 15.9N 85.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 16/1200Z 15.9N 85.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 60H 17/0000Z 16.0N 86.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 72H 17/1200Z 16.2N 87.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 18/1200Z 18.0N 89.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 19/1200Z 21.7N 91.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nineteen (AT4/AL192024)
2024-11-14 15:49:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 10:00 AM EST Thu Nov 14 the center of Nineteen was located near 15.7, -82.6 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Nineteen Public Advisory Number 4
2024-11-14 15:49:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 141449 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nineteen Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 1000 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 ...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 82.6W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Honduras has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for Honduras and the Bay Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The northern coast of Honduras form Punta Sal eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border * The Bay Islands of Honduras A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 82.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). This motion should continue through today, bringing the center near the coast of eastern Honduras. The system is expected to meander near the northern coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Depression Nineteen can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Nineteen, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area beginning later today. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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