je.st
news
Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-10-08 04:40:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 080240 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 PM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020 Tropical Depression Norbert is still struggling to maintain any deep convection near its center. Satellite imagery indicates the low-level center remains exposed, and a small convective burst noted in recent infrared imagery is already collapsing. The initial intensity is perhaps generously held at 30 kt based on a blend of recent objective satellite estimates and Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Overnight scatterometer data should help further assess whether additional weakening has occurred. Norbert continues to meander within a weak steering pattern, and its center has drifted southeast of the previous advisory position. Little movement is expected during the next 12 h, but Norbert should begin slowly moving west-southwestward from 12-36 h. Then, the cyclone should move west-northwestward or northwestward at around 5 kt for the remainder of the forecast period as a mid-level ridge builds to the north and northeast of Norbert. No significant changes were made to the NHC track forecast with this advisory. Although current satellite trends do not bode well for Norbert, the system remains embedded in a favorable environment of warm water and light vertical wind shear. The latest SHIPS guidance suggests the deep-layer shear will increase slightly during the next 24 h, which combined with any more dry air intrusions could cause Norbert to degenerate into a remnant low. On the other hand, increasing mid-level moisture and weaker shear beyond this time period could allow for a convective burst capable of getting Norbert back to minimal tropical storm strength. Given the mixed signals for small intensity fluctuations in either direction, the official intensity forecast holds Norbert's intensity steady for the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 13.2N 106.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 13.2N 106.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 13.1N 107.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 13.0N 107.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 13.2N 108.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 13.9N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 14.9N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 16.5N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 17.0N 111.5W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||