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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-10-09 10:38:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 089 WTPZ44 KNHC 090838 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 AM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 Norbert is clearly struggling to remain a tropical depression. The low-level center is exposed in recent satellite imagery, likely due to a combination of east-southeasterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air in the surrounding environment. The nearest deep convection is located roughly 50 miles south of the center, and it is very poorly organized. Unfortunately, overnight ASCAT passes missed the center of Norbert, but a partial overpass of the eastern semicircle revealed 20 kt winds. A blend of the UW-CIMSS objective estimate and the TAFB subjective Dvorak estimate supports an intensity of 25 kt, which may be generous given the lack of sustained convection near the cyclone's center. Vertical wind shear is taking its toll on Norbert, and the latest SHIPS guidance suggests the deep-layer shear will increase over the next 24-48 h. Thus, Norbert is unlikely to survive the five-day forecast period. If new convection doesn't develop soon, it could degenerate into a remnant low as early as today. The latest NHC forecast explicitly calls for dissipation by 72 h. Norbert is starting to drift northwestward, and this general motion should continue over the next couple of days as a weak mid-level ridge builds to the northeast of the depression. The NHC track forecast closely follows the consensus aids and remains very close to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 13.2N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 13.4N 106.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 13.9N 106.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 14.4N 107.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/0600Z 14.7N 107.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 11/1800Z 14.9N 107.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky
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