je.st
news
Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-10-09 16:33:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 091433 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 AM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 Although the deep convection associated with Norbert has increased this morning during the diurnal maximum, it is lacking in organization. However, this new convection has bought the depression some time as a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt based off the latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimate from TAFB. Since there is plenty of warm water along Norbert's forecast track, the cyclone will likely continue to sputter rounds of convection like this morning's for the next couple of days, which should at least maintain the system as a tropical depression during that time. In a few days, it is expected that the combination of a slow spin down of Norbert's vortex, and an increase in the environmental low-level flow should cause the system to open into a trough of low pressure. The latest NHC forecast no longer indicates a remnant low phase, but instead forecasts Norbert to remain a weak depression until dissipation in a few days. This solution is in agreement with the majority of the global models. Norbert is finally making its anticipated move toward the northwest, albeit at a meager 3 kt. A slow northwestward motion is expected until dissipation as the cyclone is steered by weak mid-level ridging to its northeast. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the various track consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 13.3N 106.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 13.6N 106.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 14.1N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 14.6N 107.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 14.8N 107.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 12/0000Z 14.9N 108.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||