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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-10-13 22:37:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 13 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 132037 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 13 2020 Low pressure associated with the remnants of Norbert has become well-organized today, with persistent convection near and north of the estimated low-level center. Partial ScatSat and ASCAT-B passes near of this system suggest the low-level circulation is closed, and 25-30 kt scatterometer winds are noted in the northeast quadrant of the low. Additionally, earlier surface observations from Socorro Island, Mexico and ship observations from the Nathaniel B Palmer research vessel reported northwesterly winds on the backside of the system. Together, all this information supports the conclusion that the remnants of Norbert have redeveloped into a tropical depression. The initial intensity for Norbert is set at 30 kt based on the recent ASCAT-B overpass and a T2.0 subjective Dvorak classification from SAB. Norbert is only forecast to be a short-lived depression given the increasingly hostile environmental conditions it is expected to face during the next 24-48 h. While the vertical wind shear is currently weak, it is forecast to quickly increase by Wednesday courtesy of a mid- to upper-level low pressure system centered offshore of the Baja California peninsula. The majority of the guidance shows little or no intensity change, and the official NHC intensity forecast calls for Norbert to remain a 30-kt depression during the next 24 h. This should be followed by weakening as Norbert transitions to a remnant low by 48 h due to 20+ kt of deep-layer shear and decreased oceanic heat content. The remnant low is expected to dissipate by Thursday night. Norbert is currently moving to the northwest at 11 kt. This general motion will continue for the next 24 h as the depression moves between a deep-layer ridge centered over northern Mexico and the upper low offshore of Baja California. As the upper low shifts westward, Norbert's forward speed will slow as the depression is drawn more northward before dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 19.8N 111.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 21.1N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 23.0N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 24.4N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 25.5N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi [ more ]
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