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Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-06-06 22:34:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 062034 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016 400 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016 The compact area of low pressure near the coast of southern Mexico has developed a well-defined center of circulation and sufficiently organized deep convection to be classified a tropical depression, the first one of the 2016 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. The initial intensity estimate of 30 kt is based on a pair of recent ASCAT passes and Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The depression is a sheared tropical cyclone with much of the associated deep convection located to the north of the low-level center. Since the wind shear is expected to remain high, no change in strength is predicted before the depression reaches the coast on Tuesday. The system is moving northeastward at about 6 kt on the east side of a broad trough that extends southwestward from the Gulf of Mexico. A continued northeastward motion at about the same forward speed is expected, bringing the center near the coast in about 24 hours. However, since the vortex is strongly tilted, the mid-level center of the system will likely move inland as early as tonight. The main hazard from the depression is the potential for heavy rainfall, which has already begun over portions of southern Mexico. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of high terrain. The Government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for a portion of southern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 14.2N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 15.1N 96.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 15.9N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 16.5N 94.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 48H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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