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Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2016-06-07 22:32:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 072032 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016 Numerous very cold cloud tops from the tropical cyclone's deep convection are observed over the Gulf of Tehuantepec and southeastern Mexico, just north of the suspected center. No in-situ observations of the system's peak winds have been available, so an 18Z Dvorak current intensity number of 2.0 from TAFB is the basis for maintaining the initial intensity of 30 kt. It again has been challenging to locate the center of the tropical depression. The visible satellite imagery was suggestive of a tight low-level center a couple of hours ago, before moving underneath the southern edge of the convective overcast. Also a 1610Z ASCAT-B scatterometer pass in the eastern semicircle of the tropical cyclone was consistent with a closed surface circulation center being located in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The initial motion is an uncertain 50/5 with the tropical cyclone being steered primarily by the low to mid-level flow on the south side of a deep-layered trough over central Mexico. The tropical depression should further slow its forward motion and either dissipate over the Gulf of Tehuantepec or just inland over southeastern Mexico. The official track forecast is near the TVCN ensemble mean and the previous advisory. The tropical depression is being affected by moderate southerly vertical shear. This as well as proximity to the high terrain of southern Mexico and advection of dry air into its circulation is likely to prevent intensification into a tropical storm. All statistical and dynamical guidance show dissipation of the tropical cyclone within about a day, regardless of whether it remains over the Gulf of Tehuantepec or makes landfall. The official intensity forecast is nearly the same as that from the previous advisory. The main hazard from the depression is the potential for heavy rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over southern Mexico and western Guatemala, especially in areas of high terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 15.5N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 15.7N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 16.0N 94.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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