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Tropical Depression Octave Forecast Discussion Number 7
2019-10-19 10:37:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 190837 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Octave Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019 Dry air and southeasterly shear are taking their toll on Octave. Small bursts of intermittent convection continue to the northwest of Octave's center, and the lack of persistent deep convection over the center is causing the low to gradually spin down. The latest subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB suggests winds have decreased to 30 kt, with even lower intensity estimates from SAB and UW-CIMSS ADT. Given that the overnight scatterometer missed the system, and the fact it does take time to spin down these lows, the initial intensity is lowered generously to 30 kt. Octave will continue to be in a hostile environment with about 25 kt of southeasterly wind shear and in the presence very dry air for the next few days. This should prevent any deep convection from persisting over the cyclone long enough to maintain the current vortex. Thus, a gradual weakening trend should continue, and Octave may become a remnant low by tonight. Even after the system becomes a remnant low, there could be occasional development of convection. However, at this time it is not believed that this convection will be sufficient enough to cause the cyclone to regenerate. This remnant low is expected to persist through the end of the forecast period. Octave is drifting northeast and it should remain in a weak flow regime for the entire forecast period. The official NHC forecast shows a meandering motion for the next several days, and the forecast track lies near the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 11.5N 126.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 11.7N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 11.6N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/1800Z 11.2N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/0600Z 11.0N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/0600Z 11.7N 125.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/0600Z 12.4N 124.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/0600Z 13.0N 124.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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