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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-09-03 16:35:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 721 WTNT45 KNHC 031435 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 Surprisingly, Omar's cloud pattern has changed little since it was classified as a tropical depression yesterday morning. A shapeless deep convective cloud mass still exists about 60 miles to the southeast of the sheared, exposed surface circulation center and the subjective T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are a carbon copy of the satellite intensity classifications 24 hours ago. Therefore, the initial intensity is once again held at 30 kt. The large-scale models as well as the statistical-dynamical intensity guidance show further weakening to a remnant low in 24 hours, and dissipation as soon as Saturday morning. Because of Omar's resiliency in such a harsh upper-level wind surrounding environment, the NHC forecast shows Omar holding onto depression status for another 12-18 hours, then finally degenerating to a remnant low Friday. The initial estimated motion hasn't changed either during the past 24 hours and is toward the east, or 085/11 kt within the deep-layer westerly flow provided by a subtropical ridge situated over the central Atlantic. This due east heading should continue through Friday morning, the a turn toward the east-northeast to northeast is forecast by Friday night in response to an approaching mid-latitude frontal zone. The official forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is based on the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 35.9N 61.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 35.8N 59.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 35.6N 57.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0000Z 36.2N 56.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1200Z 37.8N 55.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts [ more ]
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