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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-09-05 16:39:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 05 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 051439 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 05 2020 Omar is barely a tropical cyclone. The center is completely exposed to the north of a slowly shrinking area of sheared deep convection. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. Omar remains in an environment of northerly wind shear, dry air, and it is headed toward cool waters. These conditions should cause Omar to finally become a remnant low soon. Although the forecast shows the system becoming a remnant low at 24 hours, it certainty could become one at any time before then after its limited amount of deep convection dissipates. Satellite images show an approaching cold front about 300 n mi to the northwest of Omar. This front is expected to merge with the system, causing Omar or its remnants to become extratropical by Sunday afternoon. The tropical depression is now moving northward at 9 kt. A much faster north-northeast to northeast motion is expected during the remainder of the weekend as Omar, or its remnants, become more embedded in the fast steering flow ahead of the aforementioned cold front. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 37.4N 57.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 39.0N 56.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 41.9N 53.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0000Z 45.2N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi [ more ]
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