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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-05-10 22:33:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu May 10 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 102033 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012018 200 PM PDT Thu May 10 2018 The area of disturbed weather that NHC has been monitoring during the past couple of days has developed a well-defined surface circulation and enough convection to be classified as a tropical depression. Satellite intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are 2.0 on the Dvorak scale, yielding an initial intensity of 30 kt. The depression is embedded within an unfavorable upper-level wind environment, and these winds are forecast to increase further. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for the depression to have a short life, and become a remnant low in 24 hours or sooner. Since the depression just formed, the initial motion is uncertain and appears to be west-northwestward or 295 degrees at about 5 knots. Since the steering currents are expected to remain light and not change much, only a slight turn toward the northwest around a weak subtropical ridge is anticipated. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 12.4N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 12.8N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 13.5N 128.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0600Z 14.0N 128.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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