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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-06-25 22:36:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 252036 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019 400 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019 Convection associated with the area of low pressure located south of the coast of Mexico has become sufficiently well organized today, and visible satellite imagery suggest that the system has acquired a well-defined center. Based on these observations, advisories are being initiated on the first tropical depression of the 2019 eastern Pacific hurricane season. The latest Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are 2.0 and 1.5 respectively, and the initial wind speed has been set at 25 kt. The depression is forecast to remain over warm sea surface temperatures and within a low wind shear environment during the next couple of days. Although there is some dry mid-level air to the west of the cyclone, modest strengthening is indicated by most of the intensity guidance, and the NHC foreast follows suit. After 48 hours, increasing south-southwesterly shear and cooler waters are expected to cause weakening, and the system is forecast to become a remnant low in 3 to 4 days. The somewhat uncertain initial motion estimate is 290/13 kt. A mid-level ridge extending from northwestern Mexico into the eastern Pacific should steer the cyclone west-northwestward during the next few days. There is spread in the guidance as to how much latitude the system will gain over the next few days. The ECMWF which does not deepen the system much, if at all, shows a more southern track than the remainder of the guidance. The NHC forecast assumes that the system will strengthen some and shows a more climatological west-northwestward track close to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 15.2N 105.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 15.8N 107.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 16.2N 110.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 16.7N 113.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 17.4N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 18.5N 119.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 18.8N 122.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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