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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-04-25 16:49:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Apr 25 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 251448 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012020 800 AM PDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Overnight ASCAT data showed the disturbance over the central eastern Pacific basin has developed a well-defined center. Furthermore, convection associated with the low has increased in organization since yesterday. Advisories have therefore been initiated on Tropical Depression One-E. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based primarily on the aforementioned ASCAT data. This marks the earliest formation of a tropical cyclone in the eastern North Pacific basin since the satellite era began in 1966. The depression is not expected to stick around for long. Dry air in the surrounding environment appears to have already wrapped around much of the cyclone's circulation, and this is likely limiting its associated convection. This should also prevent the depression from strengthening much during the next 24 h, but it can not be ruled out that the system could briefly become a tropical storm later today. On Sunday, an increase in vertical wind shear and lower SSTs along the forecast track will contribute to the depression's demise, and it is expected to become a remnant low within about 36 h, if not sooner. The initial motion estimate is northwest at 6 kt. The depression should continue on a general northwestward heading for another day or so until it becomes a remnant low. The remnants should then turn westward with the low-level trade wind flow until it dissipates entirely in a couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 14.1N 116.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 14.9N 116.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 15.9N 118.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 16.7N 119.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1200Z 17.1N 121.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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