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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-06-26 04:37:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2019 286 WTPZ41 KNHC 260237 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019 900 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2019 The cyclone has not yet acquired well-defined convective banding features and the deep convection is rather fragmented at this time, however microwave imagery shows a fairly well-defined inner circulation structure. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt in accord with Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Hopefully, we will soon obtain a scatterometer overpass to provide a better estimate of the intensity of the system. The cyclone should move over sufficiently warm waters and within low vertical shear over the next day or so. Therefore some strengthening is forecast until around the 36 hours time frame. Thereafter, increasing south-southwesterly shear, cooler waters, and drier mid-level air should induce weakening. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and very close to the latest model consensus prediction. Based on microwave and geostationary satellite center fixes, a fairly brisk west-northwestward motion, at about 290/13 kt, continues. The primary steering mechanism for the next couple of days will be a mid-level ridge extending westward from northwestern Mexico into the Pacific. The tropical cyclone should gradually slow its forward speed as it nears the western periphery of the ridge. The official track forecast is close to the previous one, and is in agreement with the latest simple and corrected dynamical model consensus solutions. The ECMWF model shows a track at a more southern latitude, but that model's prediction of the cyclone's evolution seems to be unrealistically weak. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 15.6N 106.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 15.9N 108.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 16.3N 111.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 16.8N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 17.5N 116.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 18.6N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 19.4N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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