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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-04-25 22:32:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Apr 25 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 252032 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012020 200 PM PDT Sat Apr 25 2020 The overall organization of the depression has changed little since this morning. Its well-defined but exposed center is displaced north of the active convection. Since the organization of the cyclone is largely unchanged, the initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory. This is also supported by the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate. There is no change to the forecast reasoning. The depression is still forecast to track generally northwestward today and tonight, and then turn westward on Sunday. Although it is not explicitly shown in the forecast, some minimal short-term strengthening is possible today and the system could briefly become a tropical storm. A combination of dry air, increasing shear, and cooler SSTs should cause the cyclone to weaken by tomorrow, and it will likely become a remnant low within 36 hours. The remnant low could then persist for another day or so before dissipating early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 14.5N 116.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 15.2N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 16.1N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 16.6N 121.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1800Z 16.8N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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