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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-05-11 16:32:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri May 11 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 111432 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012018 800 AM PDT Fri May 11 2018 The depression consists of a tight swirl of low clouds located to the west of the deep convection, which has been pulsing for the past several hours. At this time, the low-level center is moving away from the remaining thunderstorm activity. Satellite intensity estimates have not changed, and the winds are still estimated at 30 kt. Belligerently unfavorable westerly shear of about 45 kt is forecast to affect the depression, and with such an environment, I have no option but to forecast that the cyclone will degenerate into a remnant low within the next 12 hours or so. Satellite fixes suggest that the depression in moving toward the west or 280 degrees at about 4 kt. The depression or its remnants will continue to move slowly, and will likely turn toward the northwest and north embedded within light steering currents. This is the solution provided by the track guidance. However, if the system opens up into a trough sooner, it is more reasonable to expected a westward drift instead. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 12.7N 129.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 13.0N 129.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 12/1200Z 13.5N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 13/0000Z 14.0N 130.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/1200Z 14.5N 130.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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