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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-04-26 09:35:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Apr 26 2020 771 WTPZ41 KNHC 260735 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012020 200 AM PDT Sun Apr 26 2020 Earlier NRL WindSAT microwave imagery and GOES16 ProxyVIS showed the depression's ill-defined center of circulation still displaced well to the northwest of a small, shapeless patch of deep convection. A 0446 UTC METOP-A scatterometer pass revealed a couple of 30 kt winds to the east of the surface center. Accordingly, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. Low to mid-level drier air indicated by the SHIPS intensity guidance, and 20-25 kt of westerly shear shown in the UW-CIMSS shear product, are certainly prohibiting convective development. An intruding dry, stable air mass, increasing shear, and gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures should induce a weakening trend soon and ultimately cause the cyclone to become a remnant low by tonight. The large-scale and regional guidance all show the depression dissipating no later than Monday night. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 305/7 kt. A Low to mid-tropospheric ridge anchored north of the depression should influence a continued northwestward motion through today. Afterward, the cyclone is expected to degenerate into a shallow remnant low, and move westward in the low-level easterly flow until it dissipates. The new official forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and is primarily based on the multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 15.2N 118.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 15.9N 119.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 16.4N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/1800Z 16.8N 123.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts [ more ]
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