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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-04-26 16:38:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Apr 26 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 261438 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012020 800 AM PDT Sun Apr 26 2020 Deep convection has been waning quickly in the southeastern quadrant since the previous advisory, and the system barely met Dvorak criteria for identifying it as a tropical cyclone at 1200 UTC. Given that the 0446 UTC ASCAT-A overpass mentioned in the previous discussion revealed a fairly sizable area of 28-30 kt winds in the northeastern quadrant, there might be one or two 30-kt vectors remaining despite the recent decline in the convective pattern, and thus the intensity has been held at 30 kt for this advisory. The initial motion remains northwestward, or 305/08 kt. A strong subtropical ridge to the north of the depression is expected to gradually turn the cyclone toward the west-northwest later today and then westward by tonight, with a westward motion being maintained thereafter until the system dissipates by late Monday. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the tightly packed consensus track models Deep-layer dry air and cooler sea-surface temperatures, combined with strong westerly shear of 25-30 kt, should continue to erode what little bit of convection remains, causing the system to rapidly degenerate into a remnant low by this afternoon or evening. The low is then expected to dissipate by Monday night. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 15.7N 118.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 16.3N 120.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 27/1200Z 16.8N 122.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/0000Z 17.0N 124.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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