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Tropical Depression PRISCILLA Forecast Discussion Number 9
2013-10-16 10:31:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED OCT 16 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 160831 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162013 200 AM PDT WED OCT 16 2013 CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 12H...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS UNCHANGED AT 30 KT...WHICH IS AN AVERAGE OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM UW-CIMSS ADT...30 KT FROM TAFB...AND 25 KT FROM SAB. PASSIVE MICROWAVE FIXES INDICATE THAT PRISCILLA IS STILL MOVING AT 290/06 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24H OR SO DUE TO A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF PRISCILLA. AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND BECOMES A VERTICALLY SHALLOW REMNANT LOW...A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST BY 36H...FOLLOWED BY A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AT 48H AND BEYOND AS THE WEAKENED SYSTEM GETS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT 12-18H WHILE PRISCILLA REMAINS OVER MARGINALLY WARM SSTS. HOWEVER...BY 24H AND BEYOND...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO A REGION OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR...WHILE ALSO MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS. THIS COMBINATION OF UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE PRISCILLA TO WEAKEN AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 36H AND DISSIPATE AFTER 72H...IF NOT SOONER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 17.9N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 18.3N 119.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 18.6N 120.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 18.7N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0600Z 18.5N 123.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z 17.7N 125.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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