je.st
news
Tropical Depression Pilar Forecast Discussion Number 8
2017-09-25 16:44:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 251444 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Pilar Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182017 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017 Water vapor satellite imagery indicates that strong southwesterly vertical wind shear, along with an abundance of dry mid-/upper-level air, ahead of sharp shortwave trough moving across southern Baja California is taking its toll on Pilar. Convection has weakened considerably and has been displaced to the north and east of the poorly defined low-level circulation center. A blend of Dvorak satellite T-numbers and current intensity (CI) estimates from TAFB and SAB is a consensus T2.0/30 kt, resulting in Pilar being downgraded to a tropical depression. The shear is forecast to increase to more than 30 kt by 12 h, so continued weakening and degeneration into a remnant low is forecast today, followed by dissipation on Tuesday...if not sooner. The initial motion estimate is 335/06 kt. Pilar and its remnants are expected to continue moving in this general direction, accompanied by a slight decrease in forward speed, for the next day or so until dissipation occurs. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the NOAA-HCCA and TCVA consensus track models. The main hazard associated with Pilar will continue to be heavy rainfall, which could trigger life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, over the states of Nayarit, the southern portion of Sinaloa, and the southwestern portion of Durango during the next day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 22.8N 107.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 23.4N 107.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||