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Tropical Depression Priscilla Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-10-20 22:39:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 202039 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Priscilla Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192019 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Priscilla moved inland along the coast of southwestern Mexico around 1930 UTC just to the east of Manzanillo. The rugged terrain in that area is expected to cause the cyclone to rapidly weaken and dissipate by 12 hours, if not sooner. Satellite intensity estimates at 1800 UTC were T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, and T2.7/37 kt and 38 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON, respectively, which supported an intensity of 35 kt at that time. However, the intensity has been decreased to 30 kt at the advisory time since Priscilla is now located inland, with most of the deep convection having been displaced well to the north of the low-level center. The initial motion estimate is 360/08 kt. Tropical Depression Priscilla will continue to move northward and farther inland over southwestern Mexico, resulting in rapid weakening and dissipation during the next 12 hours. A 12-hour forecast position was provided mainly for continuity purposes. The primary threat with Priscilla and its remnants will be heavy rainfall, along with the potential for flash flooding and mudslides, over portions of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 19.1N 104.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 21/0600Z 20.0N 104.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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