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Tropical Depression RICK Forecast Discussion Number 16
2015-11-22 09:34:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 220834 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 100 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2015 Rick is barely hanging on as a tropical cyclone. Convective cloud tops have warmed considerably since the previous advisory, and the overall convective pattern has become disheveled looking with the low-level circulation center now fully exposed more than 60 nmi to the northwest of the closest convective cells. The initial intensity has been decreased to 30 kt based on 25-kt to 30-kt satellite intensity estimates, making Rick a tropical depression. Rick has made the expected turn toward the west-northwest and is now moving 290/10 kt. There is essentially no significant change to the previous forecast track reasoning. The latest NHC model guidance continues to show Rick turning northwestward and slowing down later today, followed by a northward drift on Monday and Tuesday as the cyclone continues to weaken, becoming more vertically shallow and trapped in weak steering currents within a break in a low- to mid-level ridge. The official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track and lies close to the consensus of the GFS and ECMWF model tracks. Microwave satellite images indicate that dry and stable air has now wrapped all the way around the cyclone and has penetrated into the inner-core region, effectively cutting off convective development there. The combination of even drier air and cooler sea-surface temperatures, along with southwesterly vertical wind shear increasing to more than 30 kt by late tonight or Monday morning, is expected to produce further weakening for the rest of the forecast period. Rick should become a remnant low by tonight or early Monday, and dissipate by 96 h, if not sooner. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the the IVCN consensus intensity model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 17.3N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 18.0N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 19.2N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/1800Z 20.3N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0600Z 20.9N 120.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0600Z 21.3N 120.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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