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Tropical Depression Ramon Forecast Discussion Number 4
2017-10-05 04:48:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 050248 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Ramon Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192017 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017 Mexican radar data, ship observations, and last-light visible imagery indicate that the original low-level center of Ramon has dissipated. Earlier ASCAT data indicated the formation of a new center under convection well to the west, and this has probably become the primary center, if one still exists. As a result, the initial position of Ramon has been adjusted significantly to the west. Whatever remains of Ramon will likely be steered generally westward by a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. Since most of the track guidance no longer depicts a trackable low-level center, the new NHC track forecast follows the trend of the previous advisory, in an effort to maintain some continuity. Therefore, the forecast shows a continued westward motion with a slight increase in forward speed until the cyclone dissipates, in 24 hours or less. Dvorak classifications have decreased and Ramon is now estimated to be a 30 kt tropical depression. All of the dynamical models forecast that Ramon will dissipate quickly, and in fact the most recent runs of the ECMWF and UKMET suggest that only a trough should exist now. There is some indication from the GFS and the GFS-based hurricane models that the mid-level remnants of Ramon could interact with a disturbance to the west in a day or two and regenerate, or contribute to the development of a new tropical cyclone. However, this is not supported by any of the other global models, and 30 kt or more of shear should prohibit significant redevelopment. Even if Ramon dissipates later tonight or tomorrow, locally heavy rainfall is still expected along the immediate coast of southern Mexico through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 14.8N 101.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 14.8N 104.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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