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Tropical Depression Rosa Forecast Discussion Number 29
2018-10-02 10:51:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018 276 WTPZ45 KNHC 020851 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Rosa Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018 Satellite imagery continues to show a lack of convection near the center of Rosa this morning. The remaining convection is located well northeast of the center, and is spreading inland over northern Mexico and portions of the Desert Southwest. A couple of partial ASCAT passes revealed an area of 25-30 kt winds over the central Gulf of California, and this is the basis for reducing the initial intensity to 30 kt. The data also suggest that the circulation has become elongated and that a new center may be forming near the northeastern coast of the Baja California peninsula. The initial motion estimate is 030/9 kt. Rosa is expected to move northeastward between a deep-layer ridge over northern Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough over the northeastern Pacific. These steering features should bring the center of Rosa across the northern Gulf of California and into northern Mexico this afternoon. Southwesterly shear and land interaction should cause the cyclone to continue to weaken today, and Rosa is expected to dissipate over northern Mexico or southwestern Arizona by tonight. Although Rosa is forecast to weaken, the system is still expected to bring heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding to portions of northwestern Mexico and the Desert Southwest during the next day or so. Key Messages: 1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy rainfall in Baja California, northwestern Sonora, and the U.S. Desert Southwest. These rains are expected to produce life-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and landslides in mountainous terrain. For more information about potential rainfall in those areas, please see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 29.3N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 31.8N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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