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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 11
2014-09-14 04:35:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 140235 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014 Satellite imagery suggests that the depression is actually somewhat better organized than it was 24 hours ago. Last-light visible images showed a well-defined circulation within an elongated broader-scale cyclonic envelope, obscured by a thick veil of cirrus clouds. A band consisting of intermittent, cold-topped convection also was noted on the south side of circulation. Since there have been no fundamental changes to the cloud pattern since the last advisory, the initial intensity estimate is held at 30 kt. Opposing lower- and upper-level flow is creating a hostile environment of easterly shear over the depression, with global models showing the shear increasing while the depression nears Hurricane Odile. The model guidance shows that the shear will become so extreme that the depression will degenerate into an open trough in about 24 hours, and the NHC forecast follows suit. The depression is moving faster toward the east-southeast or 120/08. The small cyclone is expected to accelerate eastward and east-northeastward during the next 24 hours while it is drawn into the circulation of Hurricane Odile. The system should turn northeastward after that time before losing its identity altogether. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 15.1N 116.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 15.2N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 16.2N 112.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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