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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2014-09-12 10:45:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 120845 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014 A 0538 UTC ASCAT-B pass indicates that the center of the depression is still located on the northeastern edge of the remaining deep convection, consistent with northeasterly shear of around 10 kt analyzed over the cyclone by the SHIPS model. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on data from the ASCAT pass and the latest TAFB Dvorak estimate. Easterly vertical shear is expected to gradually increase today, which should prevent any intensification. Thee official forecast continues to show the depression weakening to a remnant low in a couple of days and dissipating as it is absorbed into the circulation of Tropical Storm Odile by 72 hours. However, both of these could occur sooner than indicated. The depression has been drifting northward during the past few hours. The track guidance shows an eastward to east-southeastward motion developing during the next day or so as the depression comes under the influence of Odile's circulation. Given the recent lack of motion and a trend toward a slower forward speed in much of the track guidance this cycle, the new NHC track forecast is slower than the previous one through dissipation. This forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and the GEFS ensemble mean and is on the fast side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 16.6N 120.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 16.7N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 16.4N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 15.9N 116.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 15.3N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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