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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 7
2014-09-13 04:55:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 130255 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014 Tropical Depression Sixteen-E has become poorly organized this evening. Deep convection is limited to an amorphous blob on the western side of the increasingly elongated low-level wind center. The initial intensity for this advisory has been held at 30 kt based on the Dvorak classification from TAFB. The recent disruption of the circulation is primarily due to the proximity of the depression to Tropical Storm Odile, located about 800 n mi to the east. As a result, the environment around the depression consists of increasing wind shear in the vertical and horizontal. The environment is expected to become even more unfavorable while the depression moves closer to Odile. All of the global and regional dynamical models forecast that the depression will open up into a trough within 36 hours, and some suggest that this could occur much sooner than that. The cyclone is beginning to accelerate toward the east and the initial motion is 110/05. The models remain in good agreement that the depression, or its remnants, will accelerate toward Odile on a nearly straight line until dissipation. No substantial changes were made to the track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 16.6N 118.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 16.4N 117.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 14/0000Z 16.0N 115.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Beven
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