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Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Discussion Number 3
2024-09-12 04:36:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 11 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 120235 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 11 2024 Periodic bursts of convection have been growing and fading in the tropical depression this evening. Earlier microwave imagery from SSMIS showed a fragmented curved band wrapping around the northern and western portion of the circulation. Subjective estimates from TAFB and SAB were T-2.5/35 kt and T-1.5/25 kt respectively and based on a blend of these, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. The depression is moving west-northwestward at 285/15 kt along the southern side of a mid-level ridge centered over the northeastern Atlantic. This motion should continue for the next day or so until the forward speed decreases when the ridge is eroded by an amplifying mid-level trough. By the end of the forecast period, the system should begin to turn northward toward a break in the ridge. Beyond 72 h, there is quite a bit of spread in the track guidance due to the models varying the timing of the turn to the north. The latest track forecast is similar to the previous prediction, and lies near the various consensus aids. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual strengthening for the next couple of days. Afterwards The depression is forecast to move into a drier air mass and it could experience moderate wind shear and possible dry air intrusions. The long range intensity forecast is also rather uncertain and few changes have been made to the new NHC intensity forecast, which lies near HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 16.5N 31.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 17.1N 33.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 18.1N 35.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 18.9N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 19.3N 39.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/1200Z 19.6N 41.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 19.9N 42.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 20.5N 44.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 21.3N 46.3W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Seven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2024-09-12 04:35:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 120235 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 0300 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Depression Seven (AT2/AL072024)
2024-09-12 04:35:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SOON... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 11 the center of Seven was located near 16.5, -31.3 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics