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Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Discussion Number 4
2024-09-12 10:46:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 120846 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 AM AST Thu Sep 12 2024 The system has changed little in organization overnight, with limited deep convection and slight banding features. An AMSR-2 microwave image suggested that the circulation was still somewhat broad since the cloud bands were not very tightly curved. Subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were T2.5/35 kt and T2.0/30 kt, respectively. The advisory intensity is held at 30 kt given the depression's lack of increased organization. This is also in agreement with a DMINT objective intensity estimate from UW-CIMSS based on the AMSR data. The cyclone continues on a west-northwestward heading with an estimated motion of 290/15 kt. A gradually weakening ridge over the eastern subtropical Atlantic should maintain this general motion with decreasing forward speed over the next 2-3 days. Later in the forecast period, an amplifying trough is expected to erode the ridge, which should cause the cyclone to turn at least a little to the right. The track guidance becomes somewhat divergent in the 4- to 5-day time frame, but is in overall agreement on a rather slow motion. The official track forecast is similar to the previous NHC prediction and close to the various dynamical model consensus solutions. Environmental conditions seem fairly conducive for at least gradual strengthening during the next few days, with low- to moderate-vertical wind shear and marginally warm SSTs. However, the models are not very bullish on strengthening until near the end of the forecast period. This may be due to a somewhat stable air mass over the eastern Atlantic. The official intensity forecast is similar to the Decay-SHIPS model guidance through 72 hours, but shows no change after that time given the uncertainties in intensity prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 17.3N 33.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 18.1N 34.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 18.9N 37.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 19.4N 39.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 19.7N 41.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/1800Z 19.9N 42.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 20.0N 43.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 20.7N 45.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 21.2N 47.1W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Depression Seven (AT2/AL072024)
2024-09-12 10:46:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 12 the center of Seven was located near 17.3, -33.0 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Seven Public Advisory Number 4
2024-09-12 10:46:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 120846 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 AM AST Thu Sep 12 2024 ...DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 33.0W ABOUT 600 MI...970 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 33.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a west-northwest to west motion at a slower forward speed is anticipated over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category: Transportation and Logistics