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Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Discussion Number 6
2024-09-12 22:22:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 122022 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Thu Sep 12 2024 Tropical Depression Seven appears somewhat more organized on satellite imagery this afternoon, with a compact circulation and a couple bursts of deeper convection near the center, though it has been exposed for portions of the day. Subjective and objective Dvorak numbers indicate the system is close to becoming a tropical storm. However, the initial intensity will stay 30 kt, at the lower end of the estimates, until we get a little more definitive evidence of a tropical storm. The cyclone continues on a west-northwestward heading, and the general motion is expected to continue over the next 2-3 days. The forward speed should gradually slow as the subtropical ridge to the north of the system weakens. Track guidance diverges considerably early next week, related to uncertainties with an amplifying trough over the north-central Atlantic Ocean and another ridge centered northeast of the Leeward Islands. The GFS-based guidance has trended much farther west and faster, showing a weakening system at long range. However, the ECMWF and its ensemble members still show a risk of a stronger system, so the forecast will stay on the northeastern side of the track guidance. The new NHC forecast is faster and left of the previous one owing to the bulk of the guidance shifts during this cycle. While environmental conditions are somewhat favorable for gradual strengthening, with low-moderate vertical wind shear and marginally warm SSTs, intensity guidance is even lower than the last cycle. Slight strengthening seems most probable within the marginal environment, and the forecast continues to show a 45-kt peak in 5 days. There is also the potential for greater strengthening beyond what is shown early next week as the cyclone will be in an environment characterized by lower shear, warmer SSTs around 28C, slightly more instability, but plentiful dry air aloft. The latest intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one, on the high side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 18.3N 35.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 18.9N 37.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 19.4N 39.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 19.7N 41.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 19.8N 43.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 15/0600Z 19.9N 44.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 19.8N 46.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 19.8N 48.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 20.3N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Hurley/Blake
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Seven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2024-09-12 22:22:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 122022 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER HURLEY/BLAKE
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Depression Seven (AT2/AL072024)
2024-09-12 22:21:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 12 the center of Seven was located near 18.3, -35.9 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics