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Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Discussion Number 8
2024-09-13 10:36:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 13 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 130836 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 AM AST Fri Sep 13 2024 The depression has an asymmetric structure due to moderate west-northwesterly shear, with the center lying west of generally shapeless convective clusters. Because there has largely been little change in the system's organization, and there is quite a range among the subjective and objective estimates, the intensity remains 30 kt out of respect for continuity. The initial motion is a little slower toward the west-northwest (290/12 kt). A weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north of the depression is becoming more pronounced, and the track guidance indicates that the system should turn westward by tonight and slow down further through much of the forecast period as it moves across the central tropical Atlantic. In fact, by days 4 and 5, an amplifying shortwave trough to the north is likely to cause the cyclone to crawl at speeds near or less than 5 kt and gradually turn northwestward. The official forecast is close to the previous prediction during the first 60 hours, but then is adjusted westward on days 3 through 5 following the latest model trends. In terms of moisture, the environment across the tropical Atlantic has not been kind to weather systems over the past couple of months. The official forecast still allows for the possibility of the depression becoming a tropical storm today or tonight, however an even drier air mass to the west is likely to cause the cyclone to continue struggling convectively. In fact, all of the global models show the cyclone's wind field weakening over the weekend, with the GFS suggesting the depression could degenerate into a remnant low. For now, the NHC forecast keeps the system as a tropical cyclone for the entire forecast period, but it does show weakening in a couple of days. Some recovery is possible by days 4 and 5 when the system reaches a slightly more moist and low-shear environment. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 19.0N 38.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 19.4N 39.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 19.7N 41.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 19.8N 43.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 19.7N 45.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 19.5N 46.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 19.3N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 19.2N 49.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 20.5N 50.6W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Discussion Number 4
2024-09-13 10:36:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 124 WTPZ44 KNHC 130836 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 200 AM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 Recent passive microwave images of Ileana reveal a small area of deep convection near the center of the storm, and as a result Ileana has maintained a cold central dense overcast overnight. However, the sharp edge to the cloud pattern suggests some south-southeasterly shear is impinging on the storm. Radar data from Los Cabos show outer rainbands are spreading across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory, which is consistent with recent scatterometer data that showed several tropical-storm-force wind vectors in the southeastern quadrant of the storm. The estimated initial motion of Ileana is north-northwestward at 330/9 kt. The storm is expected to remain on this general heading in the near term, bringing the center across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula later today and into the southern Gulf of California by early Saturday. Then, a slower northward to north-northwestward motion is forecast over the weekend. Little change was made to the updated NHC track forecast, which remains between the TVCE and HCCA aids. The structure of Ileana in microwave and radar imagery does not suggest much, if any, strengthening is likely before the storm reaches the coast of Baja California Sur. Deep-layer wind shear is forecast to substantially increase thereafter, and land interaction along with potential intrusions of dry air should induce weakening through the weekend. The increasingly hostile environmental conditions will likely make it difficult for Ileana to sustain organized deep convection while it moves northward over the Gulf of California. Thus, the updated NHC forecast shows degeneration to a remnant low at 48 h and dissipation by 72 h. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Storm Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of western Mexico and southern Baja California Sur through this weekend. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of Baja California Sur later this morning, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 21.5N 108.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 22.8N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 24.2N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 25.3N 110.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 26.2N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 15/1800Z 27.1N 110.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Seven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2024-09-13 10:36:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 117 FONT12 KNHC 130836 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 0900 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Category: Transportation and Logistics