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Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-07-27 16:33:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Sat Jul 27 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 271433 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019 500 AM HST Sat Jul 27 2019 The area of disturbed weather that NHC has been tracking for several days across the eastern Pacific has developed enough organized convection near the center of circulation, and is now classified as a 30-kt tropical depression. This is supported by T2.0 Dvorak numbers from TAFB and SAB. The depression is embedded within a good environment for intensification of low shear and high SSTs. Despite the environment, most of the models show only a very modest strengthening. The NHC forecast is a little more aggressive than the models and is above the intensity consensus. The depression is anticipated to become a tropical storm later today and reach hurricane status by the end of the forecast period. The depression is well embedded within the deep easterly flow south of a subtropical ridge and is moving westward at 16 kt. Since this steering flow pattern is not forecast to change much, the cyclone should continue on a general west or west-northwest track through the next 5 days, perhaps with a small decrease in forward speed. The NHC forecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus and very near the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 11.3N 123.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 11.3N 126.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 11.9N 128.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 12.5N 131.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 13.2N 133.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 14.5N 139.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 15.5N 144.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 16.5N 149.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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