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Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-07-14 10:35:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 129 WTPZ41 KNHC 140835 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that convection associated with the low pressure area several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continue to become better organized, with banding near and west of the low-level center. In addition, recent scatterometer data shows that the circulation has become better better defined. Based on this, advisories are initiated on Tropical Depression Six-E. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on reliable-looking scatterometer winds and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The initial motion is 295/15. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer it west-northwestward for the next 36 h or so, followed by a turn toward the west. Some decrease in the forward speed is likely, especially around 72-96 h when a mid- to upper-level trough north of the cyclone temporarily weakens the ridge. The forecast track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the forecast track is in the center of the guidance envelope close to the consensus models. The cyclone is expected to be in an environment of light vertical wind shear through the forecast period. However, the sea surface temperatures along the forecast track cool through 96 h, and the system is expected to move into a dryer air mass. The intensity guidance generally forecasts the cyclone to reach its peak intensity in 48-72 h followed by weakening, and the intensity forecast follows the general trend of the guidance. The forecast peak intensity of 65 kt is near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 14.2N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 14.9N 114.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 15.5N 117.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 15.8N 119.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 15.7N 120.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 16/1800Z 15.6N 121.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 15.5N 123.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 15.5N 126.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 15.5N 131.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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