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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-08-28 16:40:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Aug 28 2018 968 WTPZ41 KNHC 281440 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 900 AM MDT Tue Aug 28 2018 Since the previous scatterometer pass around 0430 UTC, the satellite presentation has improved significantly. The cloud pattern now consists of a couple of cyclonically curved convective bands, with the center of the system located on the northeastern edge of a circular area of thunderstorms, as indicated by a GMI microwave pass at 1201 UTC. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are T2.5 and T2.0, respectively, on the Dvorak scale, and on this basis, advisories are initiated on Tropical Depression Sixteen-E with an initial intensity of 30 kt. The depression has plenty of time to intensify given that the environmental conditions of warm ocean and light shear are expected to prevail during the next 5 days. The NHC forecast calls for the depression to become a hurricane in about 2 days with additional strengthening thereafter. The forecast is very close to the intensity consensus model, and follows the trend of most of the guidance. Since genesis has just occurred, the initial motion is somewhat uncertain. The best estimate is toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 9 kt. The depression is currently located on the southwestern edge of a subtropical high, and this flow pattern will continue to steer the depression on the same general track during the next day or two. After that time, the nose of the ridge is expected to amplify, and will force the cyclone to turn toward the west or even west-southwest. This is very consistent with the track guidance, and the NHC forecast lies in between the HCCA corrected consensus model and the other consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 17.1N 111.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 17.7N 112.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 18.4N 114.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 18.8N 116.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 18.9N 118.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 18.5N 121.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 17.5N 126.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 17.0N 130.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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