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Tropical Depression TEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2014-08-04 04:47:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 040247 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014 Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure several hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, have become more concentrated this afternoon and evening. The deep convection has also become better organized, taking on the form of a band with increasing curvature over the western half of the circulation. Dvorak intensity estimates are at T2.0/30 kt and T2.5/35 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively. Based on these data, advisories are being initiated at this time, and the initial intensity of the depression is set at 30 kt. Some scatter in center fixes over the last 24 hours has made the initial motion more uncertain than normal, but an estimate of 270/09 seems reasonable. The depression is situated to the south of a subtropical ridge extending west-southwestward from western Mexico that should cause the depression to move westward or perhaps even west-southwestward during the next day or two at a faster forward speed. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone will become caught under the eastern end of a subtropical ridge forming over the central Pacific, with an orientation of the ridge such that a west-northwestward heading should commence. This first NHC track forecast is close to the multi-model consensus TVCE and near but slightly south of the ECMWF/GFS solutions. Persistent moderate northeasterly shear has been affecting the system for a couple of days now, and according to SHIPS model output only a marginal decrease in this shear is likely during the next 3 days. Still the cyclone will be over warm waters and encountering an environment of higher moisture, so steady intensification is expected. Although sea surface temperatures will be gradually decreasing after day 3, the shear should nearly diminish and thermodynamic factors are expected to still be favorable enough to allow for some additional strengthening or in the very least a steady state cyclone. One caveat to intensity forecast late in the period could be the effect of the cold wake left behind by Hurricane Iselle. The intensity forecast is close to the multi-model consensus IVCN throughout the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 13.5N 116.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 13.3N 118.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 13.1N 121.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 13.0N 123.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 13.1N 126.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 13.8N 131.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 14.5N 136.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 15.0N 142.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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