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Tropical Depression TEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-08-02 22:33:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 022033 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016 Satellite images indicate the area of low pressure well southwest of mainland Mexico has become better organized. ASCAT data indicate the center is fairly well defined, with curved banding features forming around the surface center. Thus tropical cyclone advisories are being initiated on this system. Dvorak estimates and the ASCAT data support an initial wind speed of 30 kt. Gradual strengthening is forecast for the next few days while the cyclone remains over warm water, with weak-to-moderate shear and high mid- level humidity. The official forecast is a bit higher than the model consensus, since most of the guidance has had a low bias this season. ASCAT and microwave data give a relatively confident initial motion of 290/15. A strong subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific is expected to steer the cyclone relatively quickly to the west over the next few days. The ridge is forecast to weaken on days 4 and 5, which should cause a decrease in forward speed while the system approaches the central Pacific. Track guidance is in remarkable agreement for the first advisory, and the official forecast is near, but slightly faster than, the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 13.3N 115.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 13.9N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 14.5N 121.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 15.0N 124.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 15.5N 127.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 16.1N 132.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 16.9N 136.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 18.0N 140.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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