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Tropical Depression TEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2016-08-03 04:56:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 030255 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016 The deep convection associated with the tropical depression is showing some limited banding features in combination with a developing central dense overcast. Dvorak classification numbers are gradually rising, though a blend of TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS-ADT values still indicates an intensity of about 30 kt. A 1941Z AMSR2 microwave image indicated that the center of the system was slightly farther north than earlier indicated. Extrapolating forward in time from that point suggests a center that is near the northeastern edge of the deep convection, perhaps reflecting the moderate northeasterly shear affecting the cyclone. The initial motion is assessed at a fast 17 kt toward the west-northwest, primarily due to the steering of an east-west extended deep-layer ridge to its north. The tightly packed track guidance suggests a turn toward the west at a slightly slower rate of forward speed during the next few days. The NHC track forecast is slightly north of the previous advisory for the next day due to the more northerly initial motion, and then nearly the same out through the end of the period. This is supported by the global and HWRF model consensus. The system should only gradually intensify during the next day or so because of the moderate northeasterly shear and as the system develops an inner core structure. A more steady strengthening is anticipated out to about day three as the shear relaxes and the system moves over 28C water and through a very moist and unstable atmosphere. Around day four or five, the cyclone may start gradually weakening as SSTs decrease and the shear increases again. The NHC intensity forecast is based upon the IVCN consensus and peaks just slightly higher than that from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 13.9N 117.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 14.5N 120.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 15.1N 123.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 15.4N 126.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 15.7N 129.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 16.5N 133.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 17.5N 138.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 18.5N 142.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea
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