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Tropical Depression THREE-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-07-03 04:37:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT SAT JUL 02 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 030237 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 900 PM MDT SAT JUL 02 2016 The deep convection associated with the area of low pressure well southwest of Manzanillo has become much better organized during the past 6 to 12 hours, and this system is now classified as a tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery shows a large convective canopy with multiple curved bands. The estimated center position is near the eastern edge of the deep convection and the initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB. The environment appears conducive for at least steady strengthening during the next 3 days, as the cyclone will be moving over SSTs of 29-30C and in an environment of low to moderate shear and abundant moisture. The NHC intensity forecast shows the system becoming a tropical storm tonight or early Sunday and becoming a hurricane on Monday. The system is expected to peak in intensity in 3 to 4 days near major hurricane strength before gradual weakening begins as the center moves over progressively cooler waters. The official forecast is above the intensity consensus and close to a blend of the SHIPS, LGEM, and HWRF models. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 280/10 given the recent formation of the system. The dominant steering mechanism through the forecast period will be the western periphery of a subtropical ridge centered over northern Mexico and the southern United States. This pattern should guide the cyclone on a general westward to west-northwestward motion during the next 5 days. Most of the track model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario with the exception of the GFDL model, which is well to the right. There is some along-track spread between the generally slower GFS model and the faster ECMWF and HWRF through much of the period. The across-track spread increases in 4-5 days with the GFS and GEFS ensemble mean showing more of a poleward turn as they erode the ridge more, while the ECMWF, ECMWF ensemble mean, and UKMET have a stronger ridge and more westward motion. The NHC track forecast is close to a blend of these two camps through the forecast period and is of about average confidence. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 11.1N 108.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 11.3N 109.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 11.8N 111.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 12.4N 113.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 12.9N 116.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 13.8N 120.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 15.0N 125.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 16.5N 129.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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