je.st
news
Tropical Depression TWENTY-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2016-10-23 16:32:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 231432 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016 Although the depression is producing a considerable amount of deep convection, the cloud pattern is highly stretched from north-northeast to south-southwest. Microwave images from earlier this morning indicate that the low-level structure of the system is well organized despite the elongated appearance in geostationary satellite images. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. A band of strong upper-level south-southwesterly winds lies just to the north of the cyclone, and they could be contributing to its aforementioned appearance in satellite images. The global models are in agreement in showing the upper-level wind environment becoming more favorable for strengthening during the next few days. The expected low wind shear combined with warm water and high humidity values suggest that steady strengthening is likely during the next 72 hours. After that time, a notable increase in southwesterly shear and cooler waters should end the strengthening trend and cause weakening. The NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly higher peak intensity than the previous one, but it is lower than the SHIPS and LGEM models. The depression is moving west-northwestward at 14 kt. A continued west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days while the cyclone moves along the southwestern periphery of a high pressure system located over Mexico. By the end of the forecast period, a deep-layer low is forecast to erode the ridge and should cause the cyclone to slow down even more and turn northwestward. The NHC track forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus TVCN for the next 4 days, but lies to the left of that aid at 120 h in favor of the ECMWF model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 13.5N 105.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 14.1N 106.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 14.9N 108.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 15.6N 111.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 16.1N 113.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 17.3N 117.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 19.3N 120.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 21.0N 122.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||