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Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2015-11-19 03:35:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM MST WED NOV 18 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 190235 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 800 PM MST WED NOV 18 2015 The depression is poorly organized with the low-level center well separated from the mid-level circulation as indicated by several microwave images. Similar to earlier today, the low-level center continues to be located to the southeast of the weakening convection, indicating that southeasterly shear still prevails. Initial intensity remains at 30 kt based on satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB. There is an opportunity for the depression to strengthen slightly during the next day or two, while a narrow ridge builds to the north of the cyclone and the shear decreases. Most of the intensity models forecast some increase in the winds, and so does the NHC forecast. In fact, the NHC forecast still brings the depression to tropical storm status in about 12 to 24 hours. However, by the end of the forecast period, the effects of cooler waters and dry air should result in weakening. The center has moved very little during the past several hours, or perhaps it has has been drifting eastward and then northward around a larger cyclonic gyre. Most of the global models build a ridge to the north of the cyclone soon, and this steering pattern should force the depression to begin to move on a west-northwest track early Thursday. It should then continue with this general motion for the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, a new mid-latitude trough is forecast to approach from the west, weakening the ridge and inducing a northward motion. However, there is little confidence in the track forecast by the end of the period due to large spread in the model tracks. The NHC forecast follows closely the multi-model consensus, and is a little to the east of the previous NHC forecast beyond 3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 13.2N 106.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 13.7N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 14.6N 108.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 15.5N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 16.0N 111.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 17.5N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 19.0N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 21.0N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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