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Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2015-11-19 09:35:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM MST THU NOV 19 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 190835 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 200 AM MST THU NOV 19 2015 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E remains poorly organized. While the convection has increased during the past several hours, the low-level center appears to be east of the southern end of the convective area due to ongoing southeasterly shear. Satellite intensity estimates are 30 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and thus the initial intensity is unchanged from the previous advisory. The initial motion is a rather uncertain 355/5. A developing mid- to upper-level ridge to the north and northeast of the depression should result in a turn toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours, with this motion continuing through 48 hours. After that time, a mid-latitude westerly trough moving into the northeastern Pacific should break the ridge with the depression turning northwestward and northward. While the guidance is in general agreement with this scenario, after 72 hours there is still a significant spread as to where the depression may make the northward turn. The new forecast track is a little to the south of the multi-model consensus through 72 hours, then is a little east of it after that time. The depression is expected to remain over warm sea surface temperatures for the next three days or so, and the current shear is forecast to subside to low values between 12-48 hours. However, despite these apparently favorable conditions, the intensity guidance forecasts only modest strengthening during the next couple of days. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures should cause the cyclone to weaken. The new intensity forecast is the same as the previous forecast, and it lies near the upper edge of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 13.7N 106.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 14.4N 106.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 15.2N 108.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 16.0N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 16.7N 111.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 18.0N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 19.5N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 21.5N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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