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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-08-21 16:51:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 211451 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 900 AM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Satellite imagery and microwave data indicate that the disturbance that has been tracked to the south of Mexico for the past several days has become much better organized since yesterday. An early morning scatterometer pass showed a nearly closed surface low with peak winds of 30 kt. Since that time, the appearance of the disturbance has continued to improve, suggesting that the low has most likely closed at the surface. Based on this data, advisories are being initiated for Tropical Depression 10-E. Subjective Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB suggest a 30 kt intensity, which will be the initial intensity for this advisory. The depression's initial motion is 285/16 kt. The cyclone is being steered to the south of a mid-level ridge that extends from northwestern Mexico across much of the eastern Pacific. Model guidance is in good agreement that a weakness will develop in this ridge over the next day or so to the northwest of the depression. This should cause the system to make a turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed in about 24 hours. The depression is then forecast to continue to move northwest through the remainder of the forecast period. The cyclone is expected to move over very warm waters of around 30 C, through a moist environment, and with 10-15 kt of northeasterly shear over the next 48 hours. With these conditions, steady strengthening is forecast during that time frame, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today, and a minimal hurricane in 48 hours. The official forecast is close to the model intensity guidance consensus through 24 hours, and is then on the higher end of the guidance from 24 to 72 hours out of respect for a possible decrease in shear. In a few days the cyclone will move over much cooler waters and into a stable air mass while undergoing increasing shear. This will cause the cyclone to weaken and it is expected to become a convection-free post-tropical cyclone by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 15.4N 107.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 15.9N 109.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 16.6N 112.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 17.5N 114.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 18.5N 115.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 21.0N 117.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 24.4N 118.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 27.6N 120.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch
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