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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-08-14 04:34:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 274 WTPZ45 KNHC 140234 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 Since the issuance of the previous NHC advisory, deep convection associated with the depression has waned and become separated from the low-level center due to modest northeasterly shear. This has resulted in the low-level center becoming exposed. With the recent loss of organization, Dvorak data T-numbers have decreased and a blend of the various estimates yields an initial wind speed of 30 kt. The dynamical model guidance suggests that moderate to strong shear will continue to plague the cyclone during the next 2 to 3 days, and the intensity guidance is not quite as bullish as before. As a result, the new NHC intensity forecast calls for little change in strength during that time. It still remains possible, however, that new bursts of convection could allow the depression to cross the tropical storm threshold. After 72 hours, the shear is forecast to decrease but less favorable thermodynamic conditions are expected to prevent strengthening. The new forecast calls for the depression to degenerate into a remnant low by the end of the forecast period, but this could occur much sooner if the shear persists and the depression is unable to generate persistent convection. The depression is moving westward or 270/4 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the system is expected to steer the cyclone slowly west-southwestward during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, the depression is forecast to meander generally northwestward. The latest runs of the dynamical models have trended toward a slower motion of the cyclone between days 2-5, and the updated NHC track forecast has been shifted eastward to account for this model trend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 14.2N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 14.1N 131.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 13.9N 132.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 13.7N 133.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 13.7N 133.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 13.9N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 14.4N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 14.8N 134.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 14.9N 134.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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